Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
